Anjloknya Haraga Minyak Mentah

Anjloknya Haraga Minyak Mentah

Daftarhargakomoditi.web.id – Harga minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk kontrak April 2019 ditutup US $ 1,78 menjadi US $ 55,48 per barel di New York Mercantile Exchange, level terendah sejak 14 Februari. .

Harga minyak Brent untuk pengiriman April 2019 berakhir turun US $ 2,36 ke level US $ 64,76 per barel di bursa ICE Futures Europe di London. Referensi mentah global ini dikutip pada tingkat premium US $ 9,28 terhadap WTI.

Melalui Twitter, Trump meminta Organisasi Negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) untuk tidak terlalu agresif dengan harga minyak. Melalui akunnya, Trump juga memperingatkan bahwa dunia tidak bisa menerima kenaikan harga.

Retorika Trump dengan kartel minyak tersebut telah memengaruhi perubahan harga yang besar tahun lalu, ketika ia menekan OPEC untuk menjaga minyak tetap mengalir demi membantu konsumen.

“Cuitan itu pada dasarnya menusuk balon yang telah mendorong harga naik pekan lalu,” ujar Tamar Essner, seorang analis di Nasdaq Inc., New York.

“Rally minyak sebagian besar ditopang pemberitaan bahwa Arab Saudi pada khususnya akan fokus pada pengurangan ekspor dan melampaui apa yang semula mereka janjikan pada Desember,” lanjut Essner.

Intervensi Trump dilancarkan setelah harga minyak naik sekitar 22% tahun ini karena langkah pengurangan produksi oleh OPEC dan sekutunya, meredanya kekhawatiran soal dampak ekonomi akibat perang perdagangan AS-China, dan pengenaan sanksi oleh Washington terhadap minyak asal Venezuela.

Kini, tekanan dari Trump sekali lagi membuat Arab Saudi dan anggota OPEC lainnya terikat.

Sehubungan dengan pergerakan harga baru-baru ini, baik minyak acuan AS dan internasional telah berada di dekat wilayah jenuh beli (overbought).

Pada Jumat (22/2), indeks kekuatan relatif 14 hari untuk minyak berjangka Brent London diperdagangkan naik ke dekat 70, level kunci yang menunjukkan kemungkinan overbought.

“[Trump] telah berhasil berbicara tentang pasar yang lebih rendah, tidak diragukan lagi,” ujar Bob Yawger, direktur divisi berjangka di Mizuho Securities USA.

“Dengan minyak mendekati atau di wilayah overbought, Anda membutuhkan percikan seperti cuitan-nya pagi ini yang kurang lebih menekan OPEC,” tambah Yawger.

Menurut Giovanni Staunovo, seorang analis di UBS Group AG, pasar mungkin akan melihat sikap yang kurang agresif soal pengurangan pasokan dari Saudi. Komentar Trump dipandang mungkin akan menghentikan negara ini melakukan pengurangan yang lebih dalam.

“Tapi saya masih berpikir Arab Saudi memiliki insentif untuk melihat harga minyak yang lebih tinggi, dan melakukan pemangkasan yang disepakati pada Desember, ketika OPEC dan mitranya sepakat untuk memangkas minyak sebesar 1,2 juta barel per hari,” jelas Staunovo.

Risiko untuk OPEC datang dalam bentuk No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act (NOPEC). RUU yang diangkat kembali oleh legislator AS ini dapat membuat OPEC tunduk pada undang-undang antimonopoli Sherman yang digunakan lebih dari seabad lalu.

Dukungan Kongres untuk RUU itu meningkat tahun lalu setelah harga minyak mendekati level tertingginya dalam empat tahun, dan Trump secara terbuka mengecam OPEC.

Di masa lalu, Gedung Putih menentang undang-undang NOPEC, dengan pemerintahan George W. Bush dan Barack Obama mengancam akan memvetonya. Kekhawatiran OPEC kini adalah bahwa Trump dapat bersikap berbeda dengan para pendahulunya.

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